2017 H2 Mathematics Paper 2 Question 7

Hypothesis Testing
Sampling Theory

Answers

It means that each biscuit bar of the certain type in the factory (the population) has an equal chance to be selected into the sample.
Unbiased estimate of population mean =31.8{=31.8}
Unbiased estimate of population variance =0.245{=0.245}
p-value=0.0140{p\textrm{-value} = 0.0140}
There is insufficient evidence at the 1%{1\%} level of significance to conclude whether the population mean mass of biscuit bars is 32 grams.
Since n=40{n=40} is large, by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean X{\overline{X}} is normally distributed approximately. Hence no assumptions are needed about the population distribution of the masses of the biscuit bars in order for the test to be valid.

Full solutions

(i)

It means that each biscuit bar in the factory (the population) has an equal chance to be selected into the sample. {\blacksquare}

(ii)

Unbiased estimate of population mean=x=(x32)n+32=7.740+32=31.808=31.8 (3 sf)  \begin{align*} & \textrm{Unbiased estimate of population mean} \\ & = \overline{x} \\ & = \frac{\sum (x-32)}{n} + 32 \\ & = \frac{-7.7}{40} + 32 \\ & = 31.808 \\ & = 31.8 \textrm{ (3 sf)} \; \blacksquare \end{align*}
Unbiased estimate of population variance=s2=1n1((x32)2((x32))2n)=1401(11.05(7.7)240)=0.24533=0.245 (3 sf)  \begin{align*} & \textrm{Unbiased estimate of population variance} \\ & = s^2 \\ & = \frac{1}{n-1}\left( \sum (x-32)^2 - \frac{\left(\sum (x-32)\right)^2}{n} \right) \\ & = \frac{1}{40-1}\left( 11.05 - \frac{\left(-7.7\right)^2}{40} \right) \\ & = 0.24533 \\ & = 0.245 \textrm{ (3 sf)} \; \blacksquare \end{align*}

(iii)

Let μ{\mu} denote the population mean mass of biscuit bars.
H0:μ=32{\textrm{H}_0: \mu = 32}
H1:μ32{\textrm{H}_1: \mu \neq 32}
Under H0,{\textrm{H}_0, } test statistic
Z=XμsnN(0,1)Z= \frac{\overline{X} - \mu}{\frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}} \sim N(0,1)
approximately by CLT since n=40{n=40} is large
p-value=0.013970{p\textrm{-value} = 0.013970}
Since p-value>0.01,{p\textrm{-value} > 0.01, } we do not reject H0{\textrm{H}_0}
There is insufficient evidence at the 1%{1\%} level of significance to conclude whether the population mean mass of biscuit bars is 32 grams. {\blacksquare}

(iv)

Since n=40{n=40} is large, by the Central Limit Theorem, the sample mean X{\overline{X}} is normally distributed approximately. Hence no assumptions are needed about the population distribution of the masses of the biscuit bars in order for the test to be valid. {\blacksquare}